The Day Ahead: Markets Eye Today’s JOLTS, Factory Orders, and CrowdStrike Earnings

Futures Fade After June Kickoff Rally

U.S. equity futures are under pressure early Tuesday, with S&P 500 futures down 0.45%, Nasdaq 100 off 0.41%, and Dow futures slipping 0.42%. The move follows a resilient Monday session where the S&P 500 gained 0.41%, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.67%, and the Dow added 35 points.

Markets shrugged off U.S.-China trade noise and EU tariff threats to open June in the green. But pre-market softness points to caution ahead of today’s economic data and key Fed commentary. The broader tone is still supported by seasonality, with Renaissance Macro’s Jeff deGraaf noting this is one of the historically strongest six-week stretches of the year.

Jobs and Orders on Deck: 14:00 GMT Data Watch

Traders are eyeing two April reports at 14:00 GMT:

• JOLTS Job Openings: Forecast 7.11M (prior 8.49M). A sharp pullback would reinforce softening labor demand and boost rate-cut hopes.
• Factory Orders: Forecast +0.6% (prior +1.6%). A miss would signal slowing momentum in goods demand.

With rate expectations delicately balanced, any negative surprise could spark repricing across risk assets.

Earnings Spotlight: Eyes on CrowdStrike After the Bell

Before the Open:

• Dollar General (DG): EPS est. $1.48. Focus on margins after recent cost pressures.
• NIO (NIO): EPS est. -$2.56. Investors want clarity on cash burn and delivery trajectory.
• Signet Jewelers (SIG): EPS est. $1.01. A read on discretionary jewelry demand.

After the Close:

• CrowdStrike (CRWD): EPS est. $0.66 on $1.1B revenue (+20% YoY). Stifel sees potential upside after guidance reaffirmation. Shares are up 50% since last summer’s MSFT-driven software crash, but a soft print risks unwinding recent gains.

Other notable after-hours reports include Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) and Guidewire Software (GWRE).

Fed Speakers in Focus: Goolsbee, Logan on Deck

• Chicago Fed President Goolsbee at 12:45 GMT
• Dallas Fed President Logan at 15:30 GMT

Markets will parse their remarks for signals on rate path and inflation persistence. Goolsbee has leaned dovish, while Logan has pushed back on premature easing. A hawkish shift from either could rattle duration-sensitive trades.

Technical Levels: Indexes Hover Near Support

 

• S&P 500 is consolidating above its 200-day SMA (5,896). Key support at 5,756.50; resistance at 6,008 and 6,236.50.

• Nasdaq 100 is pinned between 20,727 support and 21,858.75 resistance. A move below the 200-day moving average at 20,817.81 could trigger a steep sell-off.

• Dow remains range-bound. Bulls need a break above 42,976 to challenge 43,115. Support remains at the 50-day SMA (41,240).

Today’s Setup: Caution into Key Data and Tech Earnings

Futures weakness and softening internals set a cautious tone ahead of JOLTS and factory orders. With CRWD reporting after the bell and Fed commentary due, traders should expect intraday swings around scheduled catalysts. Tech leadership is being tested; a miss from CrowdStrike could trigger rotation or broader pressure.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.