US Dollar Forecast: Gains Amid JOLTS Job Report; Gold, EUR/USD and GBP/USD Outlook

US Dollar Rises on Strong Job Data; ISM Weakness Supports Gold Prices

The US dollar strengthened after the JOLTS Job Openings report showed 8.04 million jobs, surpassing expectations of 7.64 million. Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 47.2, below estimates, supporting gold prices as economic uncertainty lingers.

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading around $2,655, holding steady as traders await the upcoming ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report and speeches from multiple Federal Reserve members.

A weaker-than-expected ADP reading could further support gold, while positive job data might pressure the metal. Investors remain cautious ahead of FOMC comments, which could provide insights into the Fed’s rate policy outlook.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at $101.283, up 0.08% during the session. It’s showing some resilience above its pivot point at $101.105, suggesting that bulls are cautiously gaining traction.

Immediate resistance is seen at $101.390, and a break above this level could signal more upside momentum, targeting $101.579.

On the downside, support is noted at $100.927, aligning closely with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $100.958. A drop below $100.927 could lead to further selling pressure, pushing the index toward $100.785.

Overall, DXY’s outlook is mixed, with a bullish bias above $101.40 and bearish risks below this resistance level.

Gold – Technical Analysis 

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,655.14, down 0.32% today. The metal faces resistance near $2,661.66, while support is $2,648.91. A break below could lead to further declines, testing $2,643.26.

Meanwhile, a move above $2,667.72 may reignite bullish momentum. Sentiment remains cautious for now.

Sterling Steady After PMI Data; Bank Stress Test Results Awaited

The British pound (GBP/USD) is holding steady around $1.3270 after the UK’s Final Manufacturing PMI met expectations at 51.5. Traders now focus on the Bank of England’s stress test results and the Financial Policy Committee’s (FPC) meeting minutes, which could influence the pound’s near-term outlook.

Positive outcomes could boost GBP sentiment, while any concerns highlighted in the reports may apply pressure.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

The GBP/USD is trading at $1.32726, down 0.09% during the session. The pair is hovering around its pivot point at $1.32729, which will be crucial for determining the next move.

Immediate support is found at $1.32367, and a break below could signal further declines toward $1.32099 and $1.31856.

On the upside, resistance is seen at $1.32947, and clearing this level could open the path to $1.33130. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.33284 and the 200-day EMA at $1.33290 indicate that the pair remains under bearish pressure.

For now, the outlook remains neutral-to-bearish unless GBP/USD can climb above the pivot point, turning the sentiment more positive.

Euro Holds Steady as Core CPI Meets Expectations

The euro’s Core CPI Flash Estimate held steady at 2.7%, which aligns with expectations, while the overall CPI was 1.8%. Investors are now eyeing the upcoming Eurozone Services PMI data, with readings from Spain, Italy, France, and Germany on the docket.

A strong showing in services activity could boost EUR sentiment, but any weakness may limit gains and add to concerns over the region’s economic growth.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

The EUR/USD pair is trading slightly lower at $1.10592, down 0.07% on the session, reflecting a cautious sentiment. The pair has slipped below its pivot point at $1.10687, now serving as an immediate resistance level.

On the downside, support is seen at $1.10463, and a break below could lead to further declines toward $1.10285. Technical indicators show the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.11060, suggesting a bearish trend if prices remain below this level.

To shift momentum back to bullish, the euro must break above $1.10836, opening the door for a push toward $1.11056. Until then, the near-term outlook remains under pressure, with sellers likely to control the trend.